Is Putin Dieing - Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the Navy Day ceremony in St. Petersburg, Russia on July 31, 2022 [Maxim Shemetov/Reuters]
In recent months, the health of Russian President Vladimir Putin has been the subject of many talks, saying that he has cancer, Parkinson's disease or even survived an assassination attempt.
Is Putin Dieing
"He can stay in power for 10 years or more if he wants, it really depends on the situation," political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya told Al Jazeera. "I wouldn't pay too much attention to his health issues."
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If a 69-year-old dies or resigns suddenly, the Federation Council has fourteen days to call a presidential election, without the Central Electoral Commission.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin will be the chairman. However, Mishustin is not seen as close to Putin, nor is he a reliable candidate for any election.
Instead, Stanovaya believes that Putin's departure will leave a power vacuum between business interests, security officials such as Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and other prominent parties.
"If something happens to him tomorrow, I think the system will survive; It is still strong," Stanovaya said.
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"The security forces, the siloviki [security officers] will seize the political agenda and take over. But if something happens to Putin later, a year or more, then the risk of disruption is very high. We will see the fight and the siloviki will- Next year, the situation may be different and more difficult."
According to an independent Russian media report, Russian experts were shocked and worried when Putin announced the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, declaring "special military operations" as a necessary step.
But Putin's refusal to acknowledge the link between the economic crisis and sanctions alienates business-minded workers, while others criticize him for not carrying out the war effectively.
"No one really knows [who will be next]," Stanovaya said. "If someone, for example, starts writing that Medvedev is the successor, it can be seen as a political war with Medvedev, because no one wants to appear as the successor it, because it makes your situation easier."
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Defense expert Mark Galeotti told Al Jazeera: "Honestly, it's hard to see Putin leaving anytime soon. Despite all the reports of illness, there is no evidence every sign shows that he is seriously ill, and given how bad the war is, I can't see him retiring unless the people around him force him to leave .
"There are no obvious successors; it would not be [wise] to appear as if you are evaluating a position that has no vacancy."
Vladimir Putin was sworn in as Russia's new president during a ceremony at the Moscow Kremlin on May 7, 2012, beginning a six-year term in which he has faced growing, economic and political turmoil. [Vladimir Rodionov/RIA Novosti/Pool via Reuters]
Putin has been ruling Russia for over 20 years, leading the country from 2000 to 2008, and again from 2012 to the present.
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In the middle, Dmitry Medvedev has the presidency, although Putin, as the prime minister, many believe that he will hold real power even at that time.
In total, the 69-year-old politician, who in late February announced that Russia invaded Ukraine is a necessary "special military operation," to Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev 18 years in power.
If Medvedev's time in power is included, Putin ruled Russia the longest, longer than Joseph Stalin's time in power.
His current term will expire in 2024. However, in 2020, the law changed, allowing him to run for two more years until 2036, when he will be 86 years old.
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According to Stanovaya, if the economy continues to weaken and the public is unhappy, another party may try to take over the government.
"In the case of the death of the president, the role corresponds to the prime minister. Will Mishustin be able to retain power? We have no way to speak," he told Al Jazeera by phone. "We can talk about things These are common, but there is no way we can rely on these ideas as a form of prediction.
"It is very difficult to make predictions about authoritarian countries because we do not know what will happen. There is no other political power in Russia that we can talk about or what one side or the other will do. ."
"This mentality in Russia is happening from childhood. It is possible to make changes from the top down because the Putin system was taught to the entire generation for a long time, 20 years ago," he said.
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The current opposition in Russia cannot win the election of Putin, because the government has ruled out alternatives for the past 20 years.
Outside Putin's United Russia Party, the second most powerful faction is the Communists, whose leader Gennadi Zyuganov considers himself "anti-systemic" to give the illusion of a different democracy: only the Communists do not against Putin.
The most prominent opponent, at least outside of Russia, is Alexey Navalny, who was given nine years for corruption in March.
Yevgeny Roizman, another prominent opposition former mayor of Yekaterinburg, was recently arrested on charges of defamation of the military, which is punishable by three years.
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Perhaps an indicator of Russia's future may lie in Uzbekistan, another former Soviet republic that was ruled by former Soviet dictator Islam Karimov from independence in 1991 until his death in 2016.
During this time, Karimov extended his time in power through elections, referendums and constitutional changes that many saw as fraud.
After his death, the media and the economy became more free and many political prisoners were released during the revolutionary period, but otherwise, many of the same workers remained. the governance and structure of the government is changing.
Still, experts say there is hope for a more peaceful Russia, even if the chances of democracy are slim.
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"He's unlikely to be a liberal [after Putin], but we shouldn't expect a liberal," Galeotti said.
"The best we can hope for is a pragmatic kleptocrat who realizes that war is bad for business and therefore has a self-interested reason to reduce the current conflict. Now, men like Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin or the mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, may fit that category, but that does not mean that they will necessarily be able to rise to power."
Russian President Vladimir Putin (center), Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (left) and Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov oversee the Vostok-2022 military program (east- 2022) at the Sergeyevsky training camp in the Far Eastern Primorsky region. Russia on September 6, 2022 [Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Pool via Reuters]
"It may be easier for the West to deal with the siloviki because their intentions are low. Even if Russia is also against the West, there may be more opportunities than Russia."
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Last year, Putin told the Russians: "There will come a time, I hope, when I can say that such and such a person is worthy, in my opinion, to lead a great country like Russia, our motherland." Would we like to think it is? An oligarch close to the Kremlin was recorded on tape saying that the president was "suffering from blood cancer." Is it true and useless speculation or misinformation designed to make the dictator look pointless and unreasonable?
Russian President Vladimir Putin salutes as he leaves a military ceremony on May 9 / Kirill Kudryavtsev / AFP via Getty Images
The tabloid press, supported by the sudden efflorescence of Twitter discoveries, seems to think so. Since his invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, the deteriorating health of the 69-year-old Russian president has been the subject of unfounded speculation, with press secretary Dmitry Peskov saying he has fallen ill. , talking about Putin's 'good' health.
Boris Karpichkov, a defector from the KGB in Britain (and former head of the second General Directorate, specialist in counterintelligence) believes that he was a spy in his sixties suffering from Parkinson's disease, along with "many" other diseases, including dementia. "He is, or at least he acts, stupid and thinks about terrible ideas," Karpichkov told Rupert Murdoch's Sun newspaper, comparing Putin in this respect to Stalin, who had at least one stroke.
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A Telegram channel called "General SVR" allegedly run by a fugitive former Russian intelligence official has claimed that Putin will undergo surgery for an unspecified type of cancer. 'soon and that while he was at the work desk, his temporary representative. will be Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the Russian National Security Council, a former member of the KGB and a long-time employee of one of its representative agencies. Patrushev, com
The evidence that contradicts, if not contradicts, the claims that Putin's death is imminent is Putin himself. It's obviously bad. Froggy eyes, awkward gait, rude behavior in televised events, including an April 22 meeting with his defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, where a dejected Putin clung to the edge of a small table as if to hate to avoid shaking or turning. . . There is also a prominent self-isolation in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, something that is often talked about in meetings with foreigners.
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