Is Russia Defeated - The current course of events seems clear, but the consequences of Russia's military defeats have not yet fully spread.
Photo: Service members of pro-Russian troops fire from a tank during the conflict between Ukraine and Russia on May 5, 2022 near the Azovstal steel plant in the southern port city of Mariupol. Photo taken on May 5, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko
Is Russia Defeated
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Putin Will Fail And Russia Will Suffer Strategic Defeat' In Ukraine, Says Blinken
After 50 years, historians of the XXI. They will examine the Russian occupation of Ukraine in the first half of the 20th century. Along with the staggering amounts of hydrocarbon fuels used by competing armies, the war will be cited as a classic case of humanity's tendency toward hubris, along with its ability to make bad decisions surrounded by people who agree with them. These two human weaknesses were masterfully demonstrated by President Vladimir Putin during the war.
While analyzing the social media coverage of the war, historians have concluded that the short-lived war had three turning points.
The first was in April 2022, when the Russians admitted that they would not be able to cut off the heads of the Ukrainian government and establish a client regime. This was because the Ukrainian army fought to a standstill as they approached Kiev, forcing the Russians to retreat to the Belarusian border. This setback can only be described as destruction, as equipment was abandoned and Russian soldiers were massacred.
The second turning point came in September. During the previous two months, the Ukrainians had slowly advanced south of the country towards Kherson, the only city Russia had captured on the west bank of the Dnipro River (which bisects the country). The city was strategically important and for the Ukrainians it was the gateway to Crimea, the real prize of the war.
Be Prepared For Ukrainian Victory Over Russia
Ukrainian pressure in Kherson resulted in the reinforcement of the Russian Armed Forces, withdrawing troops from other Ukrainian fronts. (Historians will note that in an era when wars were fought with real men, Russia started the war with a quarter of the troops it needed to achieve its goals.) This left a dangerous front line east of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest. the largest city, which offered a very large opportunity; the Ukrainians struck with a mechanized strike. Moving quickly, they captured Russia's main logistical hubs for the war effort in the northeast and east of the country.
The Russian front collapsed, thousands of soldiers fled and abandoned their equipment. The Ukrainians once again pushed the Russians to the international border in that sector of the country. This was also a riot.
The third turning point was after the defeats on the Kharkiv and Kherson fronts. Ukraine expanded its strategic reserve, which ran towards the Black Sea coast - Mariupol or Melitopol - splitting the Russian forces in two and opening the way to Crimea. The Russians turned and fled once more, over the Kerch bridge connecting Crimea and Russia. The war was over. The Russian army was defeated in the field.
As our historians draw conclusions about the war, they will return to debating the relative contributions of Putin's and the current Russian government's subsequent failure, just as they did with the failure in Afghanistan more than 30 years ago. And they will conclude that the man who made his project - his place in history no less - the rejuvenation of the Russian nation, could not survive his army in the field, tens of thousands of dead soldiers and their unity. previously separated enemies. The great, they will say, always catch the dictators in the end.
The Kremlin Acknowledges Its Defeat In Kharkiv Oblast
The Big Bang Theory January 15, 2023 European Regional Security Romania Romania Is Hiding Its Light January 13, 2023 European Regional Security Sanctions Kremlin Focus on Exiles January 13, 2023 Civil Society Europe's Edge Regional Security Russia has made a strategic mistake for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Invading Ukraine. He has misjudged the political tenor of the country, which did not expect to be freed from Russian soldiers. He has misjudged the United States, the European Union and several countries - including Australia, Japan, Singapore and South Korea - that were capable of collective action before the war and are now ready to defeat Russia in Ukraine. . The United States and its allies and partners impose high costs on Moscow. Every war is a battle against public opinion, and Putin's war in Ukraine – in the age of mass media imagery – has linked Russia with a provoked attack on a peaceful neighbor, massive humanitarian suffering and numerous war crimes. Either way, the resulting anger will be a hindrance to Russian foreign policy going forward.
Less significant than Putin's strategic mistake have been the Russian military's tactical mistakes. Given the challenges of assessment in the early stages of a war, it is safe to say that Russian planning and logistics were poor and the lack of information provided to soldiers and even top-ranking officers was devastating to morale. The war had to end quickly, with a blitz that would overthrow the Ukrainian government or force it to surrender, after which Moscow would impose neutrality on Ukraine or impose Russian rule over the country. Minimal violence can equal minimal punishment. If the government fell quickly, Putin could say that he was right all along: because Ukraine was unwilling or unable to defend itself, it was not a real country, as he said.
But Putin will not be able to win this war on the terms he wants. In fact, there are several ways it can ultimately lose. He could have plunged his army into a costly and unnecessary invasion of Ukraine, destroying the morale of Russian soldiers, consuming resources, and giving in return only the empty ring of Russian greatness and a neighboring country reduced to poverty and chaos. He could establish some control over parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, and possibly Kiev, while dealing with a Ukrainian insurgency operating from the west and engaging in guerilla warfare across the country - a scenario reminiscent of the partisan war in Ukraine around the world. Second War At the same time, he would preside over Russia's gradual economic degradation, its growing isolation, and its increasing inability to supply the wealth on which the great powers rely. And as a result, Putin may lose the support of the Russian people and elites, who depend on them to prosecute the war and maintain power, even though Russia is not a democracy.
Putin seems to be trying to restore some form of Russian imperialism. But in making this extraordinary bet, he seems to have failed to remember the events that set in motion the end of the Russian empire. The last Tsar of Russia, Nicholas II, lost the war against Japan in 1905. Later, he became a victim of the Bolshevik Revolution, losing not only his crown but also his life. Lesson: Autocratic rulers cannot lose wars and remain autocratic.
How The Pro Putin West Is Coping With Russian Defeat In Ukraine
Putin is unlikely to lose the Ukrainian war on the battlefield. But you may lose when the fights are over and the question is, now what? The unintended and underestimated consequences of this senseless war will be difficult for Russia to understand. And the lack of political planning for tomorrow - comparable to the planning failures of the US invasion of Iraq - will do its part to make this an impossible war.
Ukraine will not be able to return the Russian army to Ukrainian soil. Russia's military is in a different league than Ukraine's, and Russia is definitely a nuclear power, Ukraine is not. Until now, the Ukrainian army has fought with admirable determination and skill, but the real obstacle to Russian advances has been the nature of the war. Through aerial bombardment and missile strikes, Russia can level Ukrainian cities, thus gaining dominance in the battlespace. One could try to use nuclear weapons on a small scale with the same effect. If Putin makes that decision, there is nothing in the Russian system that will stop him. "They made a desert," wrote the Roman historian Tacitus of war tactics, attributing the words to the British war leader Calgacus, "and called it peace." This is an opportunity for Putin in Ukraine.
However, he could not simply leave the desert. Putin has fought for a Russian-controlled buffer zone between himself and the US-led security order in Europe. He could not avoid creating a political structure to achieve his goals and maintain some order in Ukraine. But the Ukrainian population has already shown that they do not want it
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